Goldman Sachs expects Brent oil prices to average $92 per barrel in 2024, driven by solid demand growth and low supply from OPEC+. The bank sees the oil market tightening at a moderate pace in 2024, with a deficit of 0.7 million barrels per day (mb/d).
Factors Driving Goldman Sachs' Oil Outlook
Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to grow by 1.6 mb/d in 2024, supported by economic growth and a recovery in jet fuel demand.
OPEC+ production is expected to remain flat in 2024, as the cartel maintains its production cut agreement. This will help to support prices.
Goldman Sachs sees significant spare capacity in the oil market, which could help to limit price spikes. However, the bank also notes that this spare capacity could be quickly depleted if demand unexpectedly surges.
Risks to Goldman Sachs' Outlook
A global economic slowdown could lead to weaker oil demand and lower prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, could disrupt oil supplies and push prices higher. OPEC+ could increase production more than expected, which would put downward pressure on prices.
Overall, Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil prices in 2024. The bank sees Brent averaging $92/bbl, with a range of $80/bbl to $100/bbl.
Goldman Sachs' Oil Outlook in the Context of Broader Energy Markets
Goldman Sachs' bullish oil outlook comes in the context of broader strength in energy markets. Natural gas prices have also been rising in recent months, as demand for the fuel has increased in Europe and Asia. Coal prices have also been on the rise, as demand for the fuel has increased in China.
The strength of energy markets is being driven by a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has disrupted energy supplies from Russia. The war has also led to increased demand for alternative energy sources, such as natural gas and coal.
Implications for Oil and Gas Companies
Goldman Sachs' bullish oil outlook is positive for oil and gas companies. Higher oil prices will lead to higher profits for these companies. In addition, the strength of the broader energy market will likely lead to increased investment in oil and gas projects.
Implications for Consumers
Higher oil prices will have a negative impact on consumers, as they will lead to higher prices for gasoline, heating oil, and other petroleum products. However, the impact on consumers is likely to be muted, as oil prices are still well below their all-time highs.
Goldman Sachs is bullish on oil prices in 2024. The bank sees Brent averaging $92/bbl, with a range of $80/bbl to $100/bbl. The strength of the broader energy market is positive for oil and gas companies, but it will have a negative impact on consumers.
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